The first rail connection between Turkey and Georgia is fast approaching completion. When operational, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) line, which extends to Azerbaijan, could integrate all three countries to unlock new trade patterns and shift Eurasia’s economic center of gravity inward. The potential gains are significant, but so are the obstacles in laying the Middle Corridor of the New Silk Road.
“For years to come, OBOR looks likely to be the toast of Western boardrooms,” says a new report from the Economist, which draws on Reconnecting Asia’s open-source database of over 2000 infrastructure projects. While Western companies are winning “Belt and Road” business, Chinese firms are participating in significantly more projects.
The news is full these days of “historic” train links between China and Europe. The latest locomotive to grab headlines was a China-Europe freight train that set off from eastern China this month. Earlier this year, the first direct freight train linking China and the United Kingdom arrived in London. But these powerful symbols aren’t always what they seem. A closer look cautions against declaring that the Silk Road is back in business.
The Belt and Road initiative’s potential impact on international trade — cargo volume and velocity, shipping routes, supply chain reliability, and transparency — has strategic benefits and risks for the United States because of its dependence on importing raw and strategic materials for manufacturing processes, and exporting finished goods to emerging markets where consumer catchment areas are expected to be created or expanded.
A country’s transportation infrastructure is plugged into other national and supranational networks in such a way as to impact, not just domestic economic interests, but also advance national security and foreign policy objectives.