China’s flagship foreign policy effort could reshape the world’s digital, trade, and transport networks and political ties for decades to come.
As Europe disappears, Asia coheres. The supercontinent is becoming one fluid, comprehensible unit of trade and conflict, as the Westphalian system of states weakens and older, imperial legacies – Russian, Chinese, Iranian, Turkish – become paramount.
Just 10 years ago, regular direct freight services from China to Europe did not exist. Today, they connect roughly 35 Chinese cities with 34 European cities. But despite their rapid advances, these lines must compete with maritime routes that have dominated commerce between Asia and Europe since the late fifteenth century. It remains to be seen how much trade they can capture.
In the past decade, China has opened an investment bridgehead and is building a transport network in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe. The level of engagement by Chinese state-owned companies, political leaders, diplomatic representatives, lending institutions, universities, and cultural organizations is gradually redefining the relationships between China and these regions of Europe.
Nearly three years have passed since the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was formally launched. Several projects have come online, and a critical mass of electric power and infrastructure projects will be operational within the next 12 to 18 months. Now, more than halfway through the first of CPEC’s three five-year phases, is an opportune moment to assess how Beijing and Islamabad have fared so far in pushing forward the massive, fifteen-year connectivity project, valued at upwards of $62 billion.
British Prime Minister Theresa May upset her Chinese hosts last week by refusing to endorse President Xi Jinping’s signature foreign policy effort, the Belt and Road Initiative. She called the U.K. a “natural partner” for the BRI, but suggested that it failed to meet international standards for transparency and fair competition.